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Wednesday, 10 December 2014

APC Presidential Primaries: How Buhari, Atiku battle for delegates

A former head of state, General Muhammadu Buhari, could be in for a big shock, going by projections coming out of various camps in the All Progressives Congress (APC), ahead the national convention holding in Lagos today.

Investigations by the Nigerian Tribune revealed that two main contenders, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the Kano State governor, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, have emerged to give Buhari a big fight for APC ticket.
Sources in the party told the Nigerian Tribune that while the ticket appeared to have been sealed for Buhari, the two other contenders, Atiku and Kwankwaso, had been working underground to reach the delegates.

Already, the Director General of Atiku campaign organisation, Professor Babalola Borishade, had confirmed during the week that his principal was sure of victory in many states, except Kwara and Imo.

It was gathered that while Buhari was banking on the support of former Lagos State governor, Senator Bola Tinubu for victory, Atiku and Kwakwanso had been reaching out directly to the delegates.

As of the last count, Atiku had visited 35 states of the federation in the process of electioneering.

Sources said Atiku’s meeting with the delegates had always been more rewarding, as many of the delegates in the states look forward to meeting him.

Nigerian Tribune gathered that while Tinubu is seen as the main promoter of Buhari, Atiku is reaching out to the delegates to benefit from his wealth of experience and network.

“Remember that Atiku’s network is practically the longest standing in the polity right now. He has been there since the aborted Third Republic and his structure has been waxing stronger. His network is not restricted to any particular region and that is the Atiku advantage,” a source said.

Sources in the party said Atiku had moved very quietly within the party and had apparently endeared himself to the delegates.

It was gathered that Atiku’s strength spread from the North-East to North-Central and even the South-South.

He is also primed to come very close to Buhari in states of the South-West controlled by the APC, while Ekiti, Ondo, as well as Osun states are said to be within Atiku’s reach.

Besides, Atiku is believed to maintain a hold on delegates from the North-Central, with delegates from the states like Kogi, Benue and Niger firmly for him.

Sources also said Kwakwanso has been strategising and moving solidly within the party and that the delegates are also looking at him as a possible candidate.

“Unlike what some people are painting, Kwankwanso has been moving around, securing delegates, faster than thought. He is truly moving like a “Trojan horse” among the delegates and it is looking bright for him on a daily basis,” a source close to the party said.

Kwankwaso, the Nigerian Tribune gathered, was being mocked as one-state aspirant, but a source in his camp promised a shocker of an outcome in his favour.

Reportedly favoured by former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Kwankwaso’s project is said to receive boost by plans to pick his running-mate from the South-South, with Rivers State governor, Amaechi, expected to be the beneficiary.

Unlike the initial indication that Buhari would make a clean sweep of the votes from North-West, it emerged during the week that states like Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara may not be intact for Buhari.

Sources said that Sokoto State Governor, Aliyu Wamakko is behind Kwankwanso.

Nigerian Tribune gathered that one of the North-West governors was behind Kwankwaso.

It was also gathered that the governor was the one who prevailed on some northern emirs and stalled a recent move to promote Buhari in the North-West.

A source said some northern monarchs were moving to promote the candidature of Buhari some months back, but that the bid leaked to two of the governors from the region, who immediately torpedoed the bid.

Investigations also revealed that the fact that delegates at the presidential primaries will cast their votes through the secret ballot could be a plus for the likes of Atiku and Kwankwanso, as the leaders would not have a way of tracing which state voted for which candidate.

But the sources said the moves in Atiku and Kwankwanso’s camps notwithstanding, the aspirants were still wary of the “Tinubu’s magic wand.”

The fear, according to sources, was that the former governor could corner the votes of delegates from the South-West and deploy it for whoever he wished.

“If that happens, Buhari could be on his way to victory,” a source said.

Sources said aspirants were wary of Tinubu’s tactics and that the two aspirants were watching out for any antics to outwit them.

“If the process is free and fair,  there won’t be issues, but if  any of the top contenders smell foul play, there could be implications for the party,” a source said.

Coupled with the Tinubu’s magic is the position of Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State, who is believed to be a major backer of General Buhari.

Sources said as of the weekend, Amaechi remained a supporter of Buhari and was hopeful of being picked as his running mate, while the Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole, was believed to be a supporter of the Atiku project.

“The position of governors will largely determine the fate of the aspirants,” another source said.

Feelers from delegates on ground in Lagos showed, however, that majority of the national officers, leaders and elders of the party were rooting for Buhari.

A national officer, who was supporting Atiku, told the Nigerian Tribune on Tuesday night that his stance was in protest.

Another source disclosed that sustained goodwill, past political connections and inter-ethnic interactions had helped Atiku to jump to the front of the race.

Another national leader, who appeared not decided on who to vote between Buhari and Atiku, pointed out that the former vice president had done well in galvanising his support base in the South-South, South-East and South-West.

He noted that even if Atiku eventually lost, he had proved a point as a great mobiliser, considering his camp being the most prepared in making delegates comfortable in Lagos.

The depth of aspirants’ pockets is also said to be playing a huge role in how they currently stand in the contest, with Atiku being fingered as the most-favoured of them all.

One major issue dominating talks ahead of the exercise was the rumour that genuine delegates could be kept outside of the venue and fake delegates sourced from Lagos replacing them to favour a certain candidate.

The delegates being allegedly primed for this deliberate shut-out are from a certain party of the country, where names of two persons could be same and the ethnic stock dominating a large swathe of territory in Lagos State.

The alleged inadequate accommodation arrangement for delegates by party leaders and non-aligned state governors was said to have made it easier for aspirants with the wherewithal to engage in last-minute mop-up of delegates by providing them with shelter and comfort.

The situation is said to be responsible for governors allegedly losing control over delegates from their states.

As of press time, several caucus meetings were ongoing.

When Nigerian Tribune put a call through to an Atiku supporter and a respected chieftain of the party, he responded with a text “can’t talk now. Will call you back." (Tribune)

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